6,700
km · Hong Kong fresh-water network
Public Water Supplies Department scale of the fresh-water transmission and distribution network.
EVIDENCE TO REVENUE
Sell verification first, then the system
Enter through paid needs diagnosis and joint trials, then combine equipment, annual service, software subscription and industry integration. Every price and forecast on this page is a planning assumption.
This page separates market signal, competitive structure and revenue assumptions. Infrastructure scale proves a problem exists. It does not prove PipeGuardian already holds share. Pricing must update after more than 20 customer interviews and 2–3 real quotations. Until then, the figures are an internal planning band only.
The first payable product is not “a fully autonomous pipe-network robot”. It is a controlled trial: task modelling, contrast inspection, a verification report. System sales and annual service become the main story only after G5 shows a better process.
INFRASTRUCTURE SIGNAL
Enough nearby problems already exist
Hong Kong and Shenzhen hold large water, drainage, gas and underground-facility networks. Ageing, hard-to-reach assets and confined-space safety make “evidence before entry” a real job.
4,717
km · Hong Kong drains
Drainage Services Department disclosed underground drain / sewer scale, of which about 2,100 km are 30 years old or more.
8,000+
km · Shenzhen gas network
Scale stated in Shenzhen SASAC public material. It is not flyable mileage this programme can serve.
- Hong Kong Water Supplies Department: water distribution
- Hong Kong Drainage Services Department: drain maintenance and ageing
- Shenzhen SASAC: gas-network public information
The gas figure only shows a highly regulated nearby asset. First-edition PipeGuardian does not enter pressurised gas or explosive atmospheres. That market needs a separate explosion-protection and permit evidence gate.
COMPETITION
The market is not empty
Mature offerings prove demand and raise the entry bar. PipeGuardian has to differentiate on local scenes, maintainable structure and data delivery.
| Class | Known strength | Limit / bound | PipeGuardian response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flyability Elios 3 | Collision tolerance, confined-space imagery and LiDAR; vendor site shows use in ~60 cm pipe | Their manual states the original edition is not for explosive / flammable atmospheres | Local asset interfaces, well-head logistics, maintainable cage and evidence workflow |
| Exyn | GNSS/comms-denied autonomous mapping | Aimed at mines / large voids; cost and pipe-specific process need comparison | Enter on segment-level tasks and light deployment |
| CCTV crawlers | Long wet pipe, standardised industry process | Shafts, obstacles, complex space and deploy efficiency are scene-limited | Collaborate rather than replace: scout and fill gaps first |
| ScoutDI tethered UAV | Long confined-space observation with power, data and recovery on the cable | Cable drag, snag, elbow passage | Treat tether / wired as a weak-link backup strategy |
REVENUE ARCHITECTURE
Four revenues, not one bet
Learn on engineering and trial income first, then productise the reusable parts. Pricing updates after more than 20 interviews and 2–3 real quotations.
| Offer | Planning price (CNY) — ASSUMPTION | Deliverable |
|---|---|---|
| Diagnosis / controlled trial | 200k–500k per project | Task modelling, controlled inspection, contrast and a verification report |
| PG-One system | 600k–1.2M per set | Robot, dock, base software and training |
| PGaaS | 300k–800k per site / year | Mission service, equipment cover, reports and re-inspection |
| PG-Atlas | 80k–200k / year | Segment data, defect workflow, versions and interfaces |
VALUATION · ASSUMPTION
Pre-money valuation ¥20M
Suggested this-round raise: ¥3M, post-money ¥23M, new investors about 13.04% (option pool not modelled). Valuation comes from replacement cost, team/technology option and 18-month milestones. It does not use a revenue multiple that does not exist yet.
VALUATION GATES
Valuation has to clear milestones
- Core team full-time and IP assignment clear;
- At least one scene party with written intent to collaborate;
- G2 or equivalent prototype evidence;
- Hong Kong research × Shenzhen engineering structure auditable;
- Financing and subsidy costs not double-counted.
ASSUMPTION label: Prices, valuation and financing structure on this page are ASSUMPTION. Until interviews and quotations close, media copy must not rewrite them as “market pricing” or “orders in hand”. Collaboration types live on the partners page. We do not publish invented customer logos.
BEACHHEAD LOGIC
Why the first money should come from verification, not hardware
Confined-space owners do not buy “full autonomy” before they have seen a contrast process. Paid diagnosis pulls both sides from a demo relationship into an evidence relationship.
Diagnosis / controlled-trial deliverables are task modelling, controlled inspection and a verification report. The buyer gets knowledge of their own segments. The seller gets G0–G5 field constraints. The 200k–500k band is a planning assumption covering engineering time, rig transport and reporting. It does not imply a closed sale. If interviews show customers will only pay a lower day-rate to fill CCTV gaps, the band must drop. The website does not get to insist.
System sales and annual service wait until contrast metrics exist. Otherwise the company locks onto an early airframe it cannot maintain. Atlas subscription can discuss interfaces earlier, because dictionary work does not depend on flight scores. Public gas-network kilometres only show a regulated asset. Until the explosion-protection gate opens, that is adjacent risk narrative, not serviceable TAM.
WHAT WE WILL NOT SELL YET
What we will not sell yet
Commercial restraint and the safety-page exclusion list are two faces of the same decision.
We will not sell explosion-protection guarantees, cumulative mileage, “replaces crawlers”, PG-X field firefighting, or accuracy figures that have not passed G4. We can sell task modelling, contrast method and a verification report for a de-energised gallery or dry pipe — with written agreement, complete permits and a designed recovery path. If a purchase list demands we match a foreign brand’s off-the-shelf figures and take liquidated damages, refuse or rewrite the contract as joint verification. Do not fill blanks with target specs.